The Global Security Initiative (GSI) represents China's official reform proposal for international security governance, yet existing perspectives fail to adequately explain its global scope, causal mechanisms, and the relationship between structural and specific variables. This paper addresses these gaps by offering two key innovations: first, it systematically traces the evolution of China’s security concepts, revealing overlooked historical continuities; second, it introduces a parsimonious causal framework that hierarchically links structural conditions (‘great changes unseen in a century’), specific triggers (e.g., the Ukraine War and U.S.-led security arrangements in Asia-Pacific), and the GSI’s global ambitions. Through hierarchical textual analysis, the study demonstrates how China’s rise creates structural incentives for global governance reform while necessitating strategies to mitigate its great power dilemma. Theoretically, it advances debates on security governance by integrating structural and agency-driven explanations. Practically, it clarifies the GSI’s strategic rationale, offering policymakers a nuanced understanding of China’s approach to systemic change.

Keywords: Global Security Initiative, International Order, China’s Rise

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Funding

Funding for this article was provided by the Observatory of Asia and the Center for Global Common Good at Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, Madrid, Spain.

Conflicts of Interest:

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to report regarding the present study.

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“Great Changes” and Global Governance Reform: Explaining China’s Global Security Initiative